Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Oil Investments
Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Oil Investments

Summary/Abstract: Traditional valuation methods are less viable under uncertainty. Hence, other methods such as real options valuation models, which can minimize uncertainty, have become more important. In this study, the hybrid approach suggested by Carlsson and Fuller is examined for the case of discrete compounding as this approach better models risky cash flows. A new real options valuation model that will evaluate the investment in a more realistic way is suggested by postponing the defuzzification of parameters in early stages. The suggested model has been applied to the data of an oil field investment and in conclusion the loss of information caused by early-defuzzification has been determined.

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