Credibility and Limits of Emission for External Debt from the Aspect of Export Capabilities of the Republic of Serbia and Economic Growth Abroad
Credibility and Limits of Emission for External Debt from the Aspect of Export Capabilities of the Republic of Serbia and Economic Growth Abroad

Summary/Abstract: The objective of this paper is to explore the possibility of an external debt of the Republic of Serbia in terms of its export potential. The regression analysis data was conducted for the period 2001-2012 years in two cases: (i) for evaluation equation of export demand and the evaluation equation interdependence of the GDP and (ii) the real effective exchange rate in the Republic of Serbia. The results show that, with real rates of economic growth in the country (ranging from -1.8 to 3%) and the real rates of economic growth in the countries where the Republic of Serbia exports (ranging from 0.2 to 2%), the external debt can be in the range between -0.43% for 2.09% per annum. This means that the share of foreign trade deficit in the GDP in the Republic of Serbia, with the rate of the GDP in these intervals, bold move between -0.43 to 2.09% per annum, and not to increase the share of external debt in the GDP.

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