STRATEGIC PLANNING, LIMITS TO GRAND STRATEGY, AND STRATEGIC REVIEW: METHODS AND PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING SOCIAL PHENOMENA
STRATEGIC PLANNING, LIMITS TO GRAND STRATEGY, AND STRATEGIC REVIEW: METHODS AND PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING SOCIAL PHENOMENA

Summary/Abstract: Planning is a process of defining goals and identifying means and methods to achieve them, effective and relevant to future operating conditions, and therefore a diagnosis of a current situation, design and choice of goals, and ways to reach them. The main substance of this publication is to present research methods (methods of prediction) relating to the creation of the future of an organisation, especially a political organisation, or a country. They are: strategic planning and strategic review. In addition, the problems relating directly to the above methods such as limits to grand strategy, the Black Swan effect, the Tsunami effect, and the arguments against normative methods will be presented.

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