Wykorzystanie miar matematycznych i biznesowych do porównania modeli macierzy migracji stosowanych w analizie ryzyka kredytowego
Application of mathematical measures and business measures to compare migration matrices used in credit risk analysis

Summary/Abstract: Credit risk models used in banks are based on probability models for occurrence of default. A vast class of these models is based on the notion of intensity In this paper we compare results obtained within Markov chain approach and with help of statistical longitudinal models (GLMM) in which states (rating classes) in discrete time points are regarded as matched pairs. The comparison of obtained migration matrices is based on various distance measures, properties of absorbing Markov chains and convergence to default. Various methods of matrix comparison reflect business based differences between clients in a different way. Markov models give good business estimators but are difficult to apply in practice.

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