Analiza przyczynowości na rynku ubezpieczeń życiowych w latach 2003–2010
Causality analysis on the life insurance market in the period 2003–2010

Summary/Abstract: On the basis of the quarterly data from life insurance market for the period 2003−2010, the author of the paper will attempt to establish whether there is a link between gross written premiums, gross claims paid, balance on technical life insurance account and the variables used for describing a general macroeconomic situation of a given country. The analysis of the dependencies on life insurance market will be carried out with the use of VAR (ECM) structural models, which require a given order of variables in the system. Using the results obtained in this analysis, forecasts and interval forecasts for 2011 will be suggested for the analyzed variables describing life insurance market. MAPE will be used for evaluating the VECM model matching for given variables.

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