Rynek ubezpieczeń w Polsce a cykle underwritingowe
The insurance market in Poland and underwriting cycles.

Summary/Abstract: In this article we are continuing research begun in the paper presented at the Inwest 2010 Conference [Manikowski 2011], where the existence of underwriting cycles in Poland was partly confirmed for the loss ratio and the underwriting profit ratio. The cycle is defined as alternating periods of hard markets in which insurance prices and insurer profitability are high and soft markets with low insurance prices and low insurer profitability. The purpose of this paper is an analysis of cyclicality for the Polish insurance market for other indexes: written premium and combined ratio, using a second-order autoregressive model. If a cycle is found, we also investigate its length. We analyzed data for the period 1991−2010.

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