Ryzyko inwestowania w spółki budowlane notowane na GPW w Warszawie a koniunktura w budownictwie
The Risk Of Investment In Construction Companies Listed On The Warsaw Stock Exchange Versus The Cycles In The Construction Industry

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this article is to assess the risk level of investment in construction companies shareslisted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the context of the situation in the construction industry. The Bry-Boschan method was used to extract the business cycle in the construction. It was based on the resultsof monthly economic situation test, which are published by the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw. Riskassessment was made using the econometric models of valuation of capital, i.e. the Sharpe model and theCAPM. The correctness of the estimated models was verified by the relevant statistical tests. The monthlyprices of the shares of construction companies listed on the WSE in 2000–2015 were used to estimate the risklevel. The risk level of construction companies listed on the WSE react to changes in economic situation inthe construction industry in 2000–2015. In the majority of the analysed companies, it was noticed that duringthe recession parameter beta was higher than in periods of recovery and prosperity.

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