Методика и результаты прогнозирования численности населения региона и его муниципальных образований (на примере Московской области)
Methodology and Results of the Forecasting of the Number of the Population of the Region and its Municipal Formations (On the Example of the Moscow Region)
Author(s): Michail Borisovich Denisenko, Pavel Kirillov Linardovich, Alla Machrova GeorgievnaSubject(s): Social Sciences, Geography, Regional studies, Human Geography, Social development, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Demography and human biology, Economic development
Published by: Географски факултет, Универзитет у Београду
Keywords: Moscow region;Russia;demographic forecasts;factor of demographic development;scenarios of demographic development;
Summary/Abstract: Moscow region in the 1990's. entered a new stage of demographic development, which is characterized by a change in the trend of population growth in its stabilization and decline related to the narrowed type of reproduction and aging of the population. Specificity of the demographic development of this period both in the region and in Russia as a whole is also related to a number of factors that "outraged" the normal course of the processes of fertility, mortality and migration and led the country to a demographic crisis. In this paper, the factors of demographic processes, population migration, demographic forecasts, scenarios of the demographic development of the Moscow region and prognostic hypotheses for municipal formations are considered. Then the forecasts of the number and sex-age composition of the population of the Moscow region and the likelihood of changes in the distribution of the population of this region.
Journal: Demografija
- Issue Year: 2009
- Issue No: 6
- Page Range: 89-107
- Page Count: 19
- Language: Russian