RUSSIAN – UKRAINIAN CONFLICT REVISITED: TOWARDS REGIME CHANGE IN RUSSIA?
RUSSIAN – UKRAINIAN CONFLICT REVISITED: TOWARDS REGIME CHANGE IN RUSSIA?

Summary/Abstract: The “Ukraine crisis”, as it is widely known, or more correctly, Ukraine – Russia war, started in 2013 - 2014, brought potentially devastating consequences for Central and Eastern Europe security and prospective functions of NATO military alliance. Previous Russian aggression, be it in Moldova or Georgia, went unpunished fact that created an impression that Russia had a “blank card” to do whatever it wanted within its “sphere of interests” (i.e. the territory of the former Soviet Union). Fortunately for the countries of NATO’s “Eastern flank” and Scandinavian neighbours of Russia, the West ultimately responded to Moscow’s military actions in the east of Ukraine. Economic and financial sanctions combined with the collapse of fossil fuels price have hit Russian economy and stopped Russia’s involvement in this conflict. For the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kremlin has been paying heavy price for its geopolitical manoeuvres. In this article I claim that as a result of Russian actions in Ukraine, this country is approaching “regime change”, though the form of it remains unclear. The West should be prepared for the possible period of uncertainty in Russia, in order to minimize its possible negative consequences: period of social unrest and unknown profile and aims of future rulers of Russia.

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