Разходни фактори на инфлацията в България
Cost Push Factors of Bulgarian Inflation

Summary/Abstract: The paper studies the behavior of nominal and real wages, average labor productivity, the exchange rate of Bulgarian lev against the dollar, and the world price of oil. It examines the specific parameters of their change in the periods of high and moderate inflation, and outlines the peculiarities of their effects on price fluctuations. It is concluded that an increase in wages serves as a booster of inflation in both periods because of their faster growth rates compared to an increase in the average labor productivity. The second major conclusion drawn is that the depreciation of Bulgarian lev against the dollar is also a source of both high and moderate inflation, and its role is particularly important in extremely high inflation episodes and relatively limited in the period after mid-1997. On the other hand changes in oil prices are manifested as a factor of inflation mainly in the second period, although their effect is sporadic and comparatively smaller than the respective contribution of rising wages and decreasing exchange rate.

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