Główne czynniki spadku dynamiki handlu międzynarodowego w latach 2008–2015
Main factors of the 2008–2015 slowdown in international trade

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is to evaluate the main factors influencing the value and dynamics of international trade flows in 2008–2015. The author points to the main factors of the 2009 trade breakdown and 2012–2015 slowdown. Empirical analysis suggests the decline in exports can be largelytraced to weaker economic activity, most notably subdued investment growth. The apparent declinein the growth of global value chains also played an important part in the observed slowdown.A small role was also played by the changes in trade policy. For 2012–2015, analysis reveals a significant impact of the decrease in export prices on global trade value, which has been growingat a similar rate as world GDP in volume terms, whereas in value terms the growth rate is muchlower.

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