DŁUGOOKRESOWA ZALEŻNOŚĆ CYKLU KONIUNKTURALNEGO I PRZESTĘPCZOŚCI W POLSCE
LONG-TERM INTERACTION OF THE CONJUNCTIVE CYCLE AND CRIME IN POLAND

Summary/Abstract: Over the years 1996-2012 clear co-variation between criminality and economic indicators in Poland, e.g. unemployment rate, was visible. The paper describes criminals’ incentives for criminal activities during economic recessions and recoveries. Using the concept of cointegration, econometric analysis of relation between the general crime rate, unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product growth rate was conducted. The long run relationship combining these three variables was found. During the periods of sluggish economy, when unemployment rate increased and GDP growth decreased, Polish crime rate was higher.

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