Analysis of the changes in the Hungarian tax system and social transfers between 2010 and 2014 using a behavioral microsimulation model Cover Image
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Analysis of the changes in the Hungarian tax system and social transfers between 2010 and 2014 using a behavioral microsimulation model
Analysis of the changes in the Hungarian tax system and social transfers between 2010 and 2014 using a behavioral microsimulation model

Author(s): Gergely Baksay, Balázs Csomós
Subject(s): National Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Fiscal Politics / Budgeting
Published by: Akadémiai Kiadó
Keywords: behavioural microsimulation; linked micro macro model; tax system; transfers;

Summary/Abstract: Using an updated microsimulation model developed earlier in the Hungarian National Bank, we estimate the macroeconomic, budgetary and labor market effects of government measures relating to taxes, social contributions, social transfers and gross wages since 2010. Compared to other studies, we take into account a more broad scope of measures, e.g. measures affecting gross wages and total labor cost directly. According to our estimations, the increase of the minimum wage and the so-called expected wage have fully compensated the low-income households of 2.3 million people already in the short-run for the loss of net income stemming from personal income tax and social contribution changes (especially for the abolition of tax credit). Taking into account social transfer reforms, the long-term macroeconomic effect of the measures is favorable: the level of employment may increase by approximately 2 percent, steady-state GDP level may go up by 1.5–2 and public deficit may decrease in the long run due to the government measures.

  • Issue Year: 37/2015
  • Issue No: s1
  • Page Range: 29-64
  • Page Count: 36
  • Language: English