Формула Ральфа Хартлі й прогнозування вартості пам'яток культури
Formula Ralph Hartley and forecasting value of cultural monuments

Summary/Abstract: R.Hartli formula describes the relationship between two fundamental concepts of mathematics – probability of events that have happened and the amount of information about this event. The formula is derived from the perceptions of the likelihood of getting useful results during repeated the experiment with equal probability testing as expected and has the form: P = 1 / 2n where n – number of trials testing. The value of 2n, therefore, is responsible for the reduction in uncertainty about the object of study in the course of its testing and describes the function of the increasing number of useful information about it. The greater the value of this quantity, the lower the probability to find the new characteristics of the object during its testing. The value of "n" can be calculated by the formula R. Hartli: n = – log2P. This characteristic earned the name "bits of information". Commodity Act states: "the more useful information about the product the higher the quality and therefore the cost.". Thus, the value of the goods "C" increases according to the formal definition of a trend to decrease uncertainty regarding the research object, namely C = α 2n, where: α – is the coefficient of proportionality, which indicates the presence of base assessment is nonzero and described specific unit measurement – Hryvnia (or other units of measurement value) for bits of information. The validity of this statement can show the analysis of the sample value indicators paintings presented at the Ukrainian market (Figure 1). The value of "n" indicates the number of positive information about the object of study in bits. We see that the correspondence of theoretical assumptions to observable characteristics is very high (correlation index K.Pirson is 0.98). The next step is to involve art research for a robust analysis of art works in groups formed by the fragmentation of the whole range of specific indicators on the submitted schedule. The result was the selection of criteria for quality assessment: "The level of artistic elaboration of the idea of work", "The level of popularity of the idea of work", "The level of technical skill of the author" and "level of public recognition of the author's work." Consequently, the graph relative value of art directly in line with the number of positive information about a work and thus forecasting the cost associated with quality indicators. However, for the works of art of a very high level of recognition, such as for example a work by Gustav Klimt "Portrait Aled Bloch-Bauer" for those listed above criterion is not sufficient, that the information is no scientific attribution. In this case, to calculate the number of evaluation criteria necessary for the description of quality, we recommend inverse calculations. Using the value recorded when it is open sales (135 million US dollars), and a more meaningful assessment protocol, calculate the index 2n, which will be 217 = 131072 (17 bits of useful information). Knowing the specific cost of painting (7.239 USD / dm.kv.), Expect the current value of the canvas: C = 7, 239 USD / dm.kv. x 190, 44 dm.kv. x 131072 = 180 695 224 US dollars. This assessment determines the level of potential financial losses of World Culture in the event of loss of this work.

• Details
• Contents