Tempo wzrostu gospodarczego jako determinant odchylenia cen akcji od ich wartości fundamentalnych
The Rate of Economic Growth as the Determinant of the Deviation of Stock Prices From the Fundamental Value

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – The aim of the research project presented in this article is to verify the research hypothesis which claims that the rate of economic growth affects the value of the difference between the current market value and the intrinsic value of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – In order to verify the hypothesis, a linear regression model was estimated, where the dependent variable represented the average quarterly deviations between the current market value and the intrinsic value of the companies (OQ). The explanatory variable was the average quarterly economic growth rate (GDP). The calculation of the difference between the current stock prices and their fundamental values was based on the data included in the 14,815 recommendations issued in the period between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014 for the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Findings – The results of the research show that as the rate of economic growth decreases, the value of the difference between the current market value and the intrinsic value of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange increases. Originality/value – In the literature devoted to the subject matter, there are numerous studies showing the dependence between the stock market and the economy conditions. Meanwhile, from the perspective of stock market investors, it is important to establish the moments of the economic cycle where it is worth to buy shares of stock-listed companies, due to the fact that their price does not reflect the real value of a given company. This exact issue has been covered in the research presented in this article.

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