Kdy vymřou voliči KSČM? K věkové struktuře elektorátu KSČM
When will Czech Communist Party Voters Die Out? An Examination of the Age Structure of the KSČM Electorate

Summary/Abstract: Since the early nineties it has been widely assumed that the Czech communist party (KSČM) will eventually disappear. To the surprise of many commentators there is currently little evidence to support this “decline and disappearance” thesis. This is the central puzzle addressed in this article. Using cohort analysis, an estimate of when electoral support for KSČM will fall below the critical five per cent electoral threshold is presented. The methodology adopted in this article proceeds in two steps. First, the validity of assuming a pure cohort model of electoral support is tested through an examination of the age structure of support for KSČM at two time points, i.e. 1996 and 2006. Second, estimates derived from a pure cohort model of KSČM electoral support between 2006 and 2023 are presented and discussed. This research demonstrates that (1) KSČM support will not decline below five per cent given likely demographic changes in Czech society over the next fifteen years, (2) the number of KSČM voters will decline to eight per cent if there is an average electoral turnout of sixty five per cent. In summary, expectations of the inevitable demise of KSČM are unlikely to be fulfilled some thirty five years after the Velvet Revolution.

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