Empiryczna weryfikacja hipotezy o przenośności modelu Altmana na warunki polskiej gospodarki oraz uniwersalności sektorowej modeli
Empirical verification of the mechanical transferability of the Altman model to the conditions of Polish economy and the sectoral universality of models

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to answer the question about the validity of mechanical transfer of the Alt-man model to Polish economy and to check if among the tested models there is a model with the highest efficiency and best outcomes for the used comparative methods for each type of enterprise (manufactur-ing, trading, service). Thirteen tested models were compared using the classification matrix, odds ratio, CAP concentration curve and Gini accuracy index, which are efficiency evaluation methods, as well as using the Brier index, which is a method of evaluating models from the calibration criterion perspective. The research was based on the sample of 439 financial statements published by 139 companies registered in Warsaw Courts (including 79 companies which actually declared bankruptcy). The findings overturned the myth of mechanical transferability of the Altman model to Polish economy and the sectoral univer-sality of models. It has been shown that the efficiency of models is different for manufacturing, trading and service companies, and these efficiencies have been determined. Furthermore, it has been proved that there are discriminatory models differing in the set of variables and weighting factors that show similar predictive efficiency.

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