Griechenland 2018: „annus mirabilis“ oder Disziplinierung durch die Finanzmärkte?
Greece 2018: “annus mirabilis” or Discipline by Financial Markets?

Summary/Abstract: European financial assistance to Greece will expire in August 2018. Referring to the Greek Prime Minister, 2018 will be an “annus mirabilis” as austerity and control by “the institutions” (European Commission, European Central Bank, European Stability Mechanism) will end. But as Greece’s reform process produced only meagre results the question remains: Will Greece have access to private financial markets or is a fourth program inevitable? In case that private institutions will be willing to invest in Greece the conditions – interest rates and maturities – will be crucial. To reduce yields demanded by investors the Greek government may be forced to push reforms and increase competitiveness. Then private markets would enforce what the institutions could only achieve insufficiently. The following aspects will be discussed: objectives and implementation of the three programs provided by the troika of institutions, Greece’s development in comparison with other “former program countries” (Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus), debt sustainability, and perspectives from August 2018 onwards.

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