Parlamentarni izbori 2017: rezultati i analize
Parliamentary Elections 2017: Results and Analyses

Summary/Abstract: The 2017 parliamentary elections, as well as those of 2013, are characterized by a high level of unpredictability, therefore with subsequent strong shifts in the party system. For the first time since the establishment of the party system in the 1950s, seven parties are represented in the new convocation of Bundestag, among them AfD [Alternative for Germany – Alternative für Deutschland, cf.], as the party of right-wing orientation in comparison to the Union [Union comprising the sister parties of CDU and CSU, i.e. Christian-Democratic Union and ChristianSocial Union, cited above]. There are more and more divisions and polarizations in the German Bundestag. The party system in the Federal Republic of Germany could thus, as in 2009, be re-characterized as a multi-party system. Due to a large number of outgoing mandates and compensatory mandates, Bundestag was expanded to 709 seats. The number of non-voting shares dropped significantly (2017: 5 percentage points; 2013: 15.7 percentage points). A total of 4,828 candidates came out to parliamentary elections, of whom 1,400 women (about 29%). The largest share of candidates was of the Green and Left parties (about 51.5, ie 51% of female candidates on the list), and the smallest share of candidates was of CSU (about 17.4% of direct female candidates); FDP (Free Democratic Party: about 22.6%) and AfD (about 12.8 percent) were the mid-list candidates. By the FDP and AfD joining the German Bundestag, the share of women in the Parliament droped to just under 31%. Alliance 90 / Green at the absolute level gained slightly less than half a million other votes, thus with just 8.9% (+0.5 percentage points) achieved a better result than predicted. They had an extraordinary large benefit from voters who made their election decision at the last minute. By this, the new parliamentary club grew to 67 deputies (4 more places). The former ruling parties - CDU, CSU and SPD (Social Democratic Party) evidenced large losses at absolute and relative levels (other votes). CDU won 26.8% (-7.4 percentage points), CSU won 6.2% (-1.2 percentage points; the calculation for Bavaria is 38.8% / -10.5), while the SPD calculation was 20.5% (-5,2). The former opposition parties – the Green and Left recorded absolute and relative gain, as it used to be the case with previous non-parliamentary opposition AfD and FDP. Therefore, as it used to be the case after the 2009 Great Coalition, the opposition parties are the winners of the elections, the parties that have not been represented in the Parliament before benefiting most. AfD and Left are competitors in the struggle for the voters who make the decision out of the revolt, i.e. from the disappointment with another party or system. AfD is the only party that is voted for primarily out of the disappointment with other parties – those of establishment. The voting for Green and FDP is outstanding, which often reflects the coalition tactics. The turnout of 76.2% represents an increase of 4.6 percentage points. In total, all the parties gained voters who had not voted before, especially AfD (additional 1,200,000) and FDP (additional 700,000). Having in mind this calculation, after the election, the reason goes with two coalitions (Union / SPD and Union / FDP / Green). After the election, SPD sees its role in the opposition. Despite the controversy when it comes to the content, supporters of FDP and Green are more likely to picture their party in a potential „Jamaica coalition“ than in the opposition. [The Jamaica coalition was named after the colors traditionally associated with German parties, which are the same as the colors of the Jamaican flag: CDU/CSU – Black, FDP – Yellow, Green – Green. cf.]

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