Impact of Emigration on Poland's Economy after 2004
Impact of Emigration on Poland's Economy after 2004

Summary/Abstract: The goal of the paper is to analyse and evaluate economic effects of emigration from Poland in 2004–2015. The analysis, based on data available at Central Statistical Office of Poland, OECD and UNCTAD, revealed a clear increase in emigration in pursuit of income in 2004–2008 and a slowdown of labour outflow after 2008 due to deteriorating working conditions in destination economies. Also the character of migrations switched from short-term towards long-term or even permanent. The assessment of migrations' impact on the economy was focused on 3 main areas: influence on GDP, labour market and foreign trade. It confirmed that emigration affected all the aforementioned areas. The post-accession emigration wave was accompanied by a marked decrease of the unemployment rate, especially during the first 5 years. Financial transfers from emigrants contributed to the economic growth rate, but their role was less significant after 2008. Negative consequences of emigration came in the form of skilled labour outflows that contributed to the decrease in labour productivity and increase in the pressure for wage growth. However, economic losses in the form of lower GDP and per capita GDP rates were marginal. To a larger extent emigration affected the value and geographical distribution of Polish exports. There was a notable increase in Polish exports to major emigration destinations such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Ireland. No such tendency occurred in the case of Germany.

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