Buduće kretanje broja stanovnika Hrvatske: projekcija 2001. – 2031.
Future Population Trends in Croatia: Projection 2001–2031

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents future population trends in Croatia, i.e. the projection 2001-2031. It also warns of future population trends according to gender and age, and changes in some "functional age-gender groups". The projection has been calculated by means of the analytical method or the so-called components method; a simpler variant was used, the so-called survival method. It was created for what is called a closed population, but in a separate part of the paper external migration is discussed as a possible modifier of the projection. The authors have based their projection on knowledge concerning past dynamic and structural characteristics of the population of Croatia and on the supposition of a population decline towards a low variant of natality (fertility). In Croatia in 2031 there will be 3 680 750 inhabitants, 756 710 or 17.1% less than in 2001! The trend will not be linear, meaning that depopulation will eventually become stronger. Even less satisfactory is the fact that a further deterioration will occur with regard to the population's age structure. The number of young people (0-14) will be halved, falling from 23.7% (2001) to 17.4% (2031), while the number of elderly people (65 plus) will increase, from 15.7% to 22.6%. The young and fertile female contingent (20-29 years of age) will drop by more than a third.

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