Existing Conflicts in the Arctic and the Risk of Escalation: Rhetoric and Reality
Existing Conflicts in the Arctic and the Risk of Escalation: Rhetoric and Reality

Summary/Abstract: In recent years, both the scholarly public and journalists have started to discuss the likelihood of an outburst of new conflicts in the Arctic and an escalation of the existing ones. Interstate disputes such as the dispute of Canada and the USA in the Beaufort Sea over the border delimitation have already lasted for several decades. But an escalation of these conflicts is not inevitable. Nowadays, in terms of the level of institutionalization of the relations and state interdependence, the Arctic is equal to other world regions, and the UNCLOS provides a sufficient framework for non-violent conflict resolution. Also the nature of the existing conflicts, the accessible technology, and the Arctic environment imply a conciliatory solution and promote cooperation between the Arctic states. Even though the current dynamics somewhat increase the conflict potential of the region, its level is definitely not as high as indicated by some authors.Moreover, articles presenting alarmist visions of conflict escalation in the region often count on incomplete and oversimplified data and assumptions and can hardly survive a rigorous verification and a confrontation with the reality of the situation.

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