THE SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEMATIC GAPS IN THE DAILY TIME SERIES ON ACCURACY OF FORECASTS Cover Image

SYMULACYJNE BADANIE WPŁYWU WYSTĘPOWANIA LUK SYSTEMATYCZNYCH W SZEREGU CZASOWYM DLA DANYCH DZIENNYCH NA DOKŁADNOŚĆ PROGNOZ
THE SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEMATIC GAPS IN THE DAILY TIME SERIES ON ACCURACY OF FORECASTS

Author(s): Maciej Oesterreich
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Keywords: high frequency time series; complex seasonal fluctuations; systematic gaps; forecasting; time series models

Summary/Abstract: In the paper was presented the simulation analysis of the impact of systematic gaps on the accuracy of inter- and extrapolative forecasts for daily time series. To forecasts construction were used classical time series model, in which a weekly and an annual seasonality was described by dummy variables. The analysed variable was daily sale of liquid fuels in liters in petrol station X in years 2012-2014. Data in years 2012-2013 were used in model construction and year 2014 was a period of empirical validation of forecasts. Eleven different variants of systematic gaps were examined. Calculations were made using the R statistical environment and the Statsoft Statistica12.

  • Issue Year: XVIII/2017
  • Issue No: 2
  • Page Range: 293-303
  • Page Count: 11
  • Language: Polish
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