Modeliranje poslovno – ekonomskih strategija kao platforme investicijske politike u uvjetima rizika
Modelling of business-economic strategies as a platform of investment policy in the risk exposure

Summary/Abstract: Investment policy and investing represent essential tasks, and also major issues of almost all socio-economic systems. Investment represents a development platform and is necessary for survival of market and economic systems; it comprises undertaking appropriate measures and activities to have the invested capital continuously increasing through exercising selected operations. Economic indicators, especially in the period of economic crisis, reflect unfavourable and widespread tendencies of unwanted business result that arise from inadequate business policy, where investing and investment policy may be marked as leaders in the area of business failure. Impossibility to accurately assume business results related to the investment, time disproportion between the investment and its initial, and particularly, optimal effects, and also irreversibility of the investment, further complicate the formulation of adequate investment policy strategy platform. Modelling of business strategies in the exposure to turbulent socio-economic, technological and market factors is an inspiration and a challenge to the researcher to representatively mirror the reality by selecting adequate theoretical model. Faithful mirroring of the reality involves a subtle approach to classification of these factors by importance, level of influence, and also adequate quantifying, identifying and shaping the form, as well as the extent of their interdependence. Mathematical simulation model is a theoretical model that allows prediction of business results in the risk exposure expressed correspondently with the random component that is influencing it. The major concern of the mentioned approach is an adequate selection of the probability distribution of a random variable, customized to the investment conditions. It is necessary here to take into account empiric component of territorial-geographic area of the investment implementation, whereby it is necessary to have insight into other aspects of distribution selection, such as experiences in the selected investment area (sectoral specificity) and adjustment to particular theoretical model. Simulation of investment effects provides objective approach to strategic choice and adequate calculation of monetary results before operationalization of the project.

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