Dolar Kuru’nun Borsa İstanbul-30 Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Aralarındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi
Effects of USD Exchange Rate over the Istanbul Stock Market 30 Index and Investigation of the Relationship between them

Summary/Abstract: It is known that financial markets have an important place in today's economy. Individuals could put their saving in good use with their own research or they could consult financial experts recommendations. A large portion of those funds that belong to individual or institutional investors are directed to the stock market of the country; as it is also observed in Istanbul Stock Exchange. The changes in economic data, is influenced by many variables, especially the stock market. The factors such as the rise in unemployment, the reduction of industrial production, the increases in interest rates and cost of credit, the increase in foreign exchange rates are perceived in the market as bad data. In this study, the causality between of the dollar exchange rate and Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index (BIST-30) was investigated with "Granger Causality Test". Monthly values are used including the period between 2009:1 (January of 2009) and 2014:12 (December 2014) as data set. We used the first trading day closing values in the calculation of monthly returns for the period. At the end of the study, we couldn’t find any causal relationship between the dollar exchange rate and the BIST-30 Index.

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