RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TERRORISM AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: ESPECIALLY IMPORT OF CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TERRORISM AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: ESPECIALLY IMPORT OF CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY

Summary/Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to observe the interaction between terrorism and energy— crude oil and natural gas import—in Turkey. It also observes the linkage between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, interest rate and inflation rate. Here, the study considers a time series data of macroeconomic variables’ growth rate which is calculated by using natural log formula. Besides, it runs correlation and scatter plot to find out the connection between variables using terrorism as an independent and macroeconomic factors as dependent variables. The study result shows that terrorism is positively correlated with the import of crude oil and natural gas though it is statistically insignificant. In addition, it also demonstrates the correlation between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables. Needless to say, these results will help the foreign and domestic investors to get an idea about the relationship between terrorism and macroeconomic variables in Turkey during 2003 to 2015. However, it is noticeable that consideration of refugee crisis and neighbor countries’ political instability could have changed the findings of the study.

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