VOTER MOBILIZATION IN A FROZEN ENVIRONMENT: A COMPARISON OF OLD AND NEW CANVASSING APPROACHES IN MONTENEGRO
VOTER MOBILIZATION IN A FROZEN ENVIRONMENT: A COMPARISON OF OLD AND NEW CANVASSING APPROACHES IN MONTENEGRO

VOTER MOBILIZATION IN A FROZEN ENVIRONMENT: A COMPARISON OF OLD AND NEW CANVASSING APPROACHES IN MONTENEGRO

Summary/Abstract: Field experimentation of canvassing effect on turnout has grown significantly since Gerber and Green’s seminal work in New Haven. This study is an attempt to adapt the large literature on the USA, to estimate the canvassing success/failure in a small and socially highly intercorrelated Montenegrin society. A popular wisdom suggests that the most effective mobilization strategy in small communities is door-to-door canvassing as it ensures personalized appeal and personalized content of the message. I test this assumption in a political context where political contestation (and party preferences) are frozen along ethnic cleavage lines. Using propensity score matching I demonstrate that contact during the campaign did not effect overall turnout rates, but that there were differences between canvassing approaches. Namely, phone and SMS contact did decrease turnout and imply a hierarchy of techniques where phone and SMS contact signals some sort of disrespect and levity in a small society. Moving on to specific mobilization efforts, I demonstrate that SMS message on the Election Day in 2016 parliamentary elections did not have any effect on overall turnout rates. The results are discussed in the context of previous literature findings.

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