Döviz Kuru ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması
The Casuality Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation Rates: The Case of Turkey

Summary/Abstract: In this study, the relationships between the nominal exchange rate, CPI and PPI inflation rates are analyzed within the framework of Turkey. Although there are various studies related to this subject in the academic literature, the upward trend of foreign exchange rates since 2016 and the upward trends of CPI and PPI inflation rates since 2017 have created need for new academic studies. For this purpose, January 2007 - December 2017 period monthly data set including 132 observations is analyzed. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and Granger causality test were applied to the data set to explain the causality relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the inflation rates of the CPI and PPI. According to the analysis results, there was a single causality relation from the PPI inflation rate to the CPI inflation rate. Nominal exchange rate and the PPI inflation rates were not affected by other independent variables.

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