Özbekistan ve “Arap Baharı”: Anna Karenina İlkesi ya da Potansiyel Bir “Devrim”in İmkanı
Uzbekistan and the Arab Spring: The Principle of Anna Karenina or the Likelihood of a Potential “Revolution”

Summary/Abstract: Recently, the potential of an “Arab Spring” like change or yet a colour revolution happening in Central Asia has been heatedly debated in the international arena. There are certain factors which are essential for a successful change of power in countries that are ruled by authoritarian regimes. In order for such a change an ideal number of socio-psychological, political, economic, and international factors has to come together in a most conducive combination within a set of parameters. So much so, the existence of all relevant factors except one may result in failure. In view of that, it would be relatively safe to argue that; despite the discontent of the Uzbek people with their regime, the dominance of Uzbek elite in the country’s politics will persist in the short and medium term due to the absence or scarcity of certain other factors that has the potential to set off a “revolution”. Hence a potential “Uzbek Spring” seems an unlikely occurrence at least for the foreseeable future.

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