MACRO-ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY WITH ESTIMATIONS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
MACRO-ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY WITH ESTIMATIONS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS

Summary/Abstract: This study estimated a macro econometric model for the Nigerian economy for growth and economic policy analysis based on recent data from 2000 to 2017 by examining alternative policy scenarios. The study estimated fifteen structural equations with interesting results coupled with implications of findings and stated eighteen identities. The study found amongst others that nominal GDP has a strong positive influence on agricultural output; economic activity is a strong factor that explains investment behaviour in Nigeria, tax revenues are strong factors influencing government spending patterns in Nigeria. The tax system’s link with Nigeria’s economy is robust on the long-run and growth in nominal income significantly increases the tax income derivable in the system. This implies buoyancy of the tax system at steady state in Nigeria. From the analysis and results, the machinery for tax generation should be improved upon for effectiveness to boost internal revenue for government. Attention should be attached to agricultural reformation, industrial policy drives, mines and mineral development to diversify Nigeria’s economy following the downward slide in the oscillations in ‘oil prices’ and unprecedented shock to the Nigerian economy.

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