Sieć Bayesa jako narzędzie wspomagające zarządzanie ryzykiem operacyjnym w banku
Bayes Belief Network as an Operational Risk Management Tool for Banks

Summary/Abstract: This paper shows that analysis of risk sources and identification of cause-effect relationships are crucial elements of the operational risk management process. Knowledge of the reasons and consequences of risk materialization is key for reliable forecasting of the effects of managerial actions and for planning interventions capable of shaping the reality according to expectations. The article concentrates on presenting one means of analyzing causal chains – Bayesian networks that can help banks understand the nature of operational risk, minimizing its scale, and, as a result, increasing the financial institutions’ efficiency. The definition, design rules, ways of using the method to analyze cause-effect relationships between operational risk factors, as well as advantages and drawbacks of the approach, are discussed.

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