OCENA WIARYGODNOŚCI WYBRANYCH MODELI WCZESNEGO OSTRZEGANIA W BADANIU KONDYCJI FINANSOWEJ PRZEDSIĘBIORSTWA
EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY OF SELECTED EARLY WARNING MODELS IN THE STUDY OF THE COMPANY’S FINANCIAL CONDITION

Summary/Abstract: The article presents the results of research on the prognostic reliability of early warning models, which include discriminant models and logotypes. On the basis of a sample of 50 enterprises ‒ 25 bankrupts and 25 healthy counterparts, the results were verified. The article presents the results of the empirical data analysis three years before the announcement of bankruptcy, two years before the event and in the year in which the bankruptcy was announced. The last analyzed period was also used to create a hierarchy of early warning models according to the relevance of results. Based on the received diagnoses from the last year of the study, it can be concluded that the models quoted above are characterized by more than 50% effectiveness of forecasts. The accuracy of the models examined allows them to be used in the decision-making processes of people responsible for the proper management of the organization’s finances. Early warning models can also be used by persons who are members of the supervisory board, investors, contractors and business partners, or statutory auditors.

• Details
• Contents