Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Quantitative Assessment of Financial Risks of Agricultural Enterprises
Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Quantitative Assessment of Financial Risks of Agricultural Enterprises

Summary/Abstract: The paper is devoted to the relevant issue of assessing the level of financial risk of agricultural enterprises. The authors present the results of the study of time series of production volumes and average market prices for livestock products in Russia. The result of the study of time series was a statistical assessment of the probabilistic characteristics of these data, the development of economic and mathematical models of their dynamics. The obtained results were used while forecasting the market movement and the volume of production of livestock products, which in turn became the basis for prognosis evaluation of the level of financial risk of agribusinesses. The authors have simulated a quantitative liquidity risk assessment for agricultural enterprises producing livestock products. The obtained results can be used by producers in the system of planning the activity of agricultural organizations. At the same time, planning the indicators of production and sales of livestock products on thebasis of a predictive assessment of the level of financial risk will allow producers to develop in advance effective measures to reduce the possible level of losses and improve production efficiency.

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