Analysis and Forecast of Prices of the Housing Market
Analysis and Forecast of Prices of the Housing Market

Summary/Abstract: Instability in the real estate market in the Republic of Kazakhstan has exacerbated the need for short-and medium-term forecasts of housing prices. Unfortunately, the results of the forecasts do not fully satisfy experts and consumers and therefore the further development of forecasting methods is an urgent and important task for real estate market analysts. The basis of the price forecast in the real estate market is usually the analysis of the dynamics of processes in the past periods of time. The author identifies stable trends that have been manifested in the past and for which there are grounds to assume that they will continue in the future. As the main tools for such forecasts are usually used methods of time series analysis, developed in the framework of the traditional methodology of random processes. But this analysis and the methods of forecasting based on it are usually used in a situation of calm market development and non-changing forecast background. However, in the context of unstable economic processes such methods of forecasting real estate prices will not give accurate forecasts for the long term. In this regard this article proposes a new technique based on multivariate correlation and regression analysis to predict real estate prices.

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