Scenariusz średnich kosztów energii elektrycznej do roku 2050 oraz cen w taryfach za energię elektryczną dla wybranych grup odbiorców do roku 2030
The scenario of average costs of electricity up to 2050 in Poland and forecast of electricity prices in tariffs for selected groups of consumers up to 2030

Summary/Abstract: A model of prices and tariffs for the Polish power system was developed, which allows assessment of the effects of public policy in the energy sector from the point of view of energy costs for the economy and for selected group of consumers. Modelling results can be used to assess the market and economic effects of individual scenarios, energy concepts or regulatory impact assessment. The model with the forecast of costs and energy prices allows to analyse the potential impact of the introduction or exclusion from the national energy system of a specific group of technologies or central power plant on electricity costs. The results of the analysis indicate the inevitability of the increase of energy costs. Domestic energy policy leads to an increase in operating costs and, as a result, to an increase in total costs in the power generation sector from PLN 37 billion in 2015 to PLN 68 billion in 2030, which will translate into an increase in tariffs for small and medium enterprises and households.

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