PRIMJENA TEHNIKE TELEFONSKOG ANKETIRANJA U ISTRAŽIVANJU NAMJERA GLASOVANJA NA HRVATSKIM PREDSJEDNIČKIM IZBORIMA 2000. GODINE: STUDIJ SLUČAJA
APPLICATION OF THE METHOD OF TELEPHONE SURVEYS IN RESEARCHING VOTING INTENTIONS AT THE CROATIAN PRESIDENTIAI ELECTIONS IN THE YEAR 2000: CASE-STUDY

Summary/Abstract: ln this work the authors present the findings of the validation analysis of results concerning voting intentions at the 2000 presidentiai elections, gathered in two separate telephone surveys on the eve of the first election round and run-off. Based on the results of the analysis a general prognostic validity of the research was established in relation to the official electoral results and so was the influence of certain modalities of gathering and processing data on the validity of the results obtained. The results indicate that, in our current circumstances, the main issue of the validity of pre-election telephone surveysis connected with a relatively large proportion of noncommitment regarding voting intentions (in the research analysed it was 29.8 or 25.6%), thus making it necessaryto correct the original results through different reduction procedures. Therefore, correcting results in two steps has proven the most suitable method, based on additional questions on inclinations towards certain electoral options (this procedure has, in both electoral situations analysed, considerably improved the precision of results and reduced a certain partiality in their main distribution), while proportional conversion by simple elimination of non-committed examinees, has not given satisfactory effects.

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