The Dynamics of Deterrence in the Black Sea Area. The Challenges to Romania’s Security Agenda
The Dynamics of Deterrence in the Black Sea Area. The Challenges to Romania’s Security Agenda

Summary/Abstract: The paper will seek to decipher the significance of deterrence in the Black Sea region and assess the main challenges which shape the dynamic of deterrence in the region. By this logic, the paper will examine the evolving military balance in the Black Sea basin, the impact of Russian’s build-up in the region, the complicated web of regional security agendas- especially important being Turkey’s growing strategic unpredictability-, as well as the main dilemmas facing the West in forging a more consolidated defense posture. The research will be built around two main hypothesis of analysis. The first one assumes the fact that the Black Sea area became an arena of the geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West in conjunction with Russia’s growing military reach and power projection potential which has already created a strategic imbalance in the region. The second one considers that the regional power games and the complex security agendas of the main players in the Black Sea make the regional dynamic highly unpredictable and complicate the Western deterrence posture on the entire eastern flank.

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