The Evolution of Fertility over the Life Course. A Comparative Study between Romania and Turkey
The Evolution of Fertility over the Life Course. A Comparative Study between Romania and Turkey

Summary/Abstract: The transition of fertility is an important part of the process of economic and social development and modernization of society. The transformations that have occurred in the politics of life, economic and social but also in the way of thinking the population influenced the demographics of the population's behaviour. This is the cumulative result of the manifestation of three phenomena: natality, mortality and migration. The intensity of fertility is determined by the magnitude of the birth rate. The paper presents the results of a study on the analysis and prognosis of fertility evolution in Romania and Turkey during 1980-2100, based on the application of models such as the Bayesian hierarchical series, auto-regression temporal series and time series prognosis. The models used for forecasting were based on the metadata provided by the National Institutes of Statistics and the United Nations. The comparative study follows, on the one hand, highlighting the evolution of fertility phenomenon in Romania versus Turkey in 1980-2018, and on the other hand, comparing forecasts on total fertility between Romania and Turkey between 2018 and 2100 and future projections based on the demographic profiles provided by the National Institutes of Stats' metadata.

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