Kretanje broja učenika osnovne škole na školskim područjima Bjelovarsko-bilogorske županije 1969./70.-2018./19.: neizvjesna demografska budućnost školstva
Changes in the Number of Primary School Students in School Areas of the Bjelovar-Bilogora County in the Period between Schoolyears 1969-70 and 2018-19: Insecure Demographic Future of Education

Summary/Abstract: This paper addresses the changes in the number of primary school students in school areas of the Bjelovar-Bilogora County. It thereby tackles demography in general and school demography in particular. The author has studied the subject in the context of demographic changes in the Republic of Croatia, and proved that since the early 1960s, there has been a continuous decrease in natural population growth as a consequence of a decreasing birth rate, negative migration rate, and changes in the population structure reflected in a decrease in the young population against an increase in the old population. The war aggression on Croatia (1991–1995) has led to a decrease in the total population number. The author concluded that negative general trends were occurring in all parts of the country (in the counties), causing a decrease in the number of primary school students. On a sample of 26 regular primary schools in the Bjelovar-Bilogora County, the author has studied changes in the number of students between schoolyears 1969-70 and 2018-19, with a particular emphasis on changes in the five school areas. Research results have shown that the number of inhabitants had been reduced by 47,835 (28.6%) between the censuses of 1961 and 2011, which led to a decrease in the number of primary school students by 10,323 (54.9%) in the schoolyear 2018-19 in comparison with the schoolyear 1969-70. General changes related to the population on the whole, as well as the total number of school students, have caused changes – or rather a decrease – in the number of students in all school areas. In the Grubišno Polje school area, the most significant decrease in the number of students in the studied period was recorded – 72.7%. The figures in other school areas are as follows: Daruvar 66.1%; Garešnica 58.1%; Čazma 53.7%; Bjelovar 40.8%. Based on the entrance (number of first-grade students) and the exit (number of eighth-grade students) figures, it has been estimated that the process of the decrease in the number of students will in the forthcoming decade continue – both at the county level and at the level of the five studied school areas.

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