Możliwości zastosowania złożonych struktur prognozujących w systemach eksperckich wczesnego ostrzegania o sytuacjach kryzysowych w przedsiębiorstw
The possibilities of using complex forecasting structures in expert systems for early warning of crisis situations in an enterprise

Summary/Abstract: Aim – The principle of the research presented in this article is to present a new method of forecasting (determining) of crisis situations in an enterprise. Design/methodology – This methodology is based on the use of dynamic structures, previously used in the control and optimization tasks. The research was carried out on a large database of financial indicators of enterprises by computer simulation method by comparing the results obtained with the proposed method with the results achieved by commonly used methods and approaches. Result – The results of the research indicate the possibility of implementing a discrete structure that forecasts the state and financial situation in the enterprise, the effectiveness of which will be comparable or better than existing and currently applied solutions in this field. Originality/value – A new method for forecasting a crisis situation has been proposed, and results of the research are certainly original not only on the national scale, but probably also on a global scale. The cognitive value of the method itself as well as the results obtained seems to be high.

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