İŞLETMELERDE TOPLAM SATIŞ (FİNANSAL) TAHMİNLEMESİ: BİR KOBİ UYGULAMASI
TOTAL SALE (FINANCIAL) FORECASTING IN ENTERPRISES: THE CASE OF A SME

Summary/Abstract: Each organization especially commercial organizations are to always make decisions with regard the problems they encounter under the competitive conditions. These decisions are decisions with regard to future and made based on past experience. When making these decisions, prediction of future is important. These predictions can include various issues like income forecast and demand forecast. Forecast models can be qualitative or quantitative. In this study, initially forecast models were presented. Then, by using moving averages model, which is one of the quantitative forecasting models, total sale income forecast model for a SME (Small and Medium Sized Enterprise) in Sivas for 48 months between the years 2011 and 2014 was studied. According to TOBB (Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges) data, 5386 new companies opened in 2014 and 2561 companies closed down and in 2013 4351 new companies were opened and 2610 companies were closed down. While 110% increase in the number of companies opened can be seen as a significant success, 66,7% increase in the number of the companies closed down is striking. In this study, financial failure, which is one of the most important reasons for closing down companies and total sale income forecast, which is one of the most influential variables that affect financial forecasting, one of the reasons underlying this failure, were studied.

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