The impact of Brexit on the member states’ ability to build blocking coalitions in the Council
The impact of Brexit on the member states’ ability to build blocking coalitions in the Council

Summary/Abstract: Using a proprietary computer program, simulations of voting in the Councilafter Great Britain’s withdrawal from the EU were carried out. In the case of some ofthem, a methodological innovation consisting in departing from the assumption thatthe emergence of each possible coalition is equally probable was used. The analysisconducted indicates that after Brexit the ability of the Council members to form smallminimally blocking coalitions will change significantly. At the same time, the assessmentof the ability of states to block decisions in the Council and made on the basisof the Preventive Power Index, differs fundamentally from the results of the analysisfocusing on building small minimally blocking coalitions. This research is funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, under project no.UMO-2016/23/D/HS5/00408 (SONATA 12 grant) entitled “The Impact of Brexit andUnconditional Introduction of the ‘Double Majority’ Voting System on Decision-Making in the Council of the European Union.”

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