Perspektywy rozwoju modeli ostrzegających przed upadłością
Prospects for development of models warning about bankruptcy

Summary/Abstract: This contribution attempts to identify main factors to be taken into account and conditions to be fulfilled in work on constructing models warning about bankruptcy, which will help to verify development prospects of this type of analysis. The study shows how the number of enterprises going bankrupt is inversely proportional to the dynamics of GDP, and that at present the number of enterprises threatened with bankruptcy can be expected to grow. It also advocates development of industry-specific models, pointing out at the same time that significant improvement in prognostic potential of general purpose (multi-industry) models is not likely to occur. In considering future development of models warning about bankruptcy it is important to realize that not only financial indicators should be take into account in their construction but also the changeability of these indicators. It also is necessary to make greater use of indicators relating to cash flows.

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