Wykorzystanie barometru stycznia i grudnia na przykładzie 88 spółek notowanych na GPW Warszawie
The January (December) barometer effect on the example of 88 equities listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – The aim of the research is to verify the effectiveness of the so-called January (December) barometer on the example of monthly rates of return 88 equity prices listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – The method was proposed by Dzhabarov and Ziemba and is based on an analysis of the relationships between the monthly rates of return in the month of December (or January) and the cumulative monthly rates of return during the following 11 months. This dependence is expressed by linear regression. The monthly arithmetic and logarithmic rates of return registered in December and January were divided into three groups: (1) all rates of return (positive, negative and equal to zero), (2) positive and equal to zero and (3) negative rates of return. Originality/value – This is the one of the first study known regarding Polish equity market. Findings – In the case of 88 shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, except a few companies, low effectiveness of the January (December) barometer was found.

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