A népesség területi szintű vizsgálata az előreszámítások és a tényadatok alapján Magyarországon
Spatial Survey on Population in Hungary by Projections and on the Basis of Actual Data

Summary/Abstract: Population projections of László Hablicsek (1953–2010) have major scientific contribution to understanding the demographic processes of Hungary; its social and economic usefulness cannot be questioned. Although, trends of the past ten years indicate the need for some corrections. The present analysis shows that the population estimation was very close to reality in the past ten years. There was no significant difference between the estimated and real data; only last year’s data show some alteration. However, the projections for smaller territorial scales are in need for serious corrections. In recent years, regional disparities in the country rather increased. The migration towards large cities, moving from undeveloped areas to more developed ones raise dissonance among regions. The population concentration proved to be stronger than the forecast, and the analysis showed, that the regional concentration of the population as well as the loss of population has further reinforced the unfavourable position of underdeveloped regions at micro-regional level. Immigration from abroad further enhances regional differences, since the immigrants presumably do not prefer rural, disadvantaged areas, they most probably favour economically developed micro-regions which are close to big cities. The observed changes in the socio-economic environment require corrections in the demographic projections, which is a natural need of the professional audience as well as actors in social policy.

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