ИЗБОРНА КОЛЕБЉИВОСТ У СРБИЈИ: ПОРЕЂЕЊЕ И ОБЈАШЊЕЊЕ
THE ELECTORAL VOLATILITY IN SERBIA: COMPARISON AND EXPLANATION

Summary/Abstract: In the first part of this article the electoral volatility in Serbia is compared to those in other countries. The Pedersen’s Index for Serbia from 1990 to 2003 is 19.6, which means there is high electoral volatility. However, compared to other countries in transition, the volatility in Serbia turns out to be average. Therefore, I conclude that the causes of high volatility in Serbia could not be specific, but similar to the reasons in other post-communist countries. In the second part, I analyze the general reasons for the increased volatility. They are: the large number of parties participating in political life, and insufficient time, passed since the restoration of multiparty elections, for the voters to become more seriously tied to the parties, or for the parties to become socially anchored. In the third part, I analyze the particular causes of the increased volatility that are specific, first of all, for Serbia and other post-communist societies. They are: the fast change of social structure, which leads to a general feeling of social and personal insecurity, as well as the widespread dissatisfaction with the gap between the increase of social inequality and the number of social winners, which increases the frequency of protest voting. At the end, I conclude that, in time, some of these factors would probably lose their significance, so the volatility in Serbia would decrease. However, a noticeable decrease could hardly be expected during the next ten years at least.

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