Wybrane aspekty optymalizacji prognoz kombinowanych
Some aspects of optimizing combined forecasts

Summary/Abstract: The preparation of forecasts generates costs, which can be called input costs associated with collection, storage and processing of statistical data, the construction of forecasting model, monitoring reliability of forecasts. The use of inaccurate forecasts in decision- making process usually results in tangible losses, called output costs. The sum of input and output costs is forecasting total cost. The paper describes a special method of combining forecasts, i.e., determining the values of weights for individual forecasts in the combination. The method allows to develop a combined forecast optimal from the standpoint of forecasting total cost as well as its accuracy. The presented method treats the forecasting process comprehensively, taking into account expenditures incurred to prepare forecasts and measurable effects resulting from its use.

• Details
• Contents