Efekti recesije u evrozoni na domaću privredu ‒ problem održivosti javnog duga Srbije
The effects of the recession in the euro area on the domestic economy ‒ problem of sustainability of Serbian public debt

Summary/Abstract: After a preliminary euro area GDP fall in the last quarter of 2011, negative growth rate could be recorded in the first quarter of 2012th. European leaders reached a compromise on a number of measures to save the euro area, which is encouraging. However, the implementation, in which the ECB, ESFS, IMF must take part, is still pending. Decline in import demand in Italy, Germany, as well as in neighboring countries, affecting Serbian exports, which slows down or stagnates. Capital in world markets has become scarcer, which will further reduce the inflow of foreign direct investment. NBS estimates that GDP growth in 2012. of 0,5% will be achieved thanks to the improvement in the second half of the year, when you should come to the recovery in western Europe. Serbia’s public debt will exceed 45% of GDP due to practical stagnation of GDP, the national currency depreciation, and net borrowing. For ongoing sustainability of public finances in the medium term it is necessary cuts in public spending by as much as 5% of GDP.

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