20 години паричен съвет в България - ефект върху макроикономическото състояние на страната и бъдещи перспективи
20 years of currency board system in Bulgaria – effect on the macroeconomic context and prospects for the future

Summary/Abstract: The currency board system that has been introduced and sustained in Bulgaria since 1997 is assessed on the basis of its impact on the macroeconomic conditions in the country. The assessment is founded on the theoretical advancements on the topic and on the empirical observations on the role of the currency board in Bulgaria when macroeconomic crises and external shocks occur. The conclusions for the procyclical and conservative nature of the system are the basis of development of three scenarios for the future of the currency board in Bulgaria – a realistic, an optimistic and a pessimistic one. The main prerequisites for their implementation are outlined. The associated risks are stated.

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