TÜRKİYE'DE PARA POLİTİKASININ ÖDEMELER BİLANÇOSUNA ETKİSİ:2003-2015
THE EFFECTS OF THE MONETARY POLICY ON THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN TURKEY: 2003-2015

Summary/Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of monetary policy on the balance of payments in Turkey. In the study, 2003-2015 years were selected as the analysis period. Real effective exchange rate, real interest rates, M2 money supply, loan volume, growth rates and current account balance were used as variables. In the study, while the ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) unit root test was used to test the stability of the series; The VAR analysis was performed with the effect-response functions, variance decomposition and Granger causality test was applied to determine the causality. According to the causality test results; a one-way causality from the current account deficit to the real effective exchange rate, real interest rates, M2 money supply and credit volume. There is also a one-way causality from the growth rate to the current account deficit. Growth rates, real effective exchange rate and real interest rates and credit volume were determined as the reasons of the change in current account deficit by variance decomposition.

• Details
• Contents